AI Agents & Humanoids

AI Agents & Humanoids

The pace of AI Agent and humanoid advancement has accelerated to the point where human worker replacement can now be based simply on a payback cycle.  Many companies are activity "augmenting" their workforces with both AI Agents and humanoids. They are achieving sub-10 week payback cycles according to Rob Garlick, a tech analyst with decades of spotting definitive tech inflection points.

Stacked microprocessors, 3D printing, and battery innovations have all led to AI Agent and humanoid solutions. At this point, both AI Agents and humanoids can handle mundane tasks for hours, but given the exponential growth rate in development, increasingly more complex tasks are right around the corner.

If we look at the current workspace and ask "where are there shortages?" and "what is the remedy?" AI Agents and humanoids are increasingly the answer to both questions...humanoids can do many warehouse functions now, with increasing ability to assemble items. In short order, assembly should lead to construction / destruction activities like shoveling snow, mowing lawns, planting trees, harvesting crops, and building homes for example. AI Agents can already act as full travel agents, salesman, and diagnostic techs. Humanoids are coming online slower...albeit with greater potential impact for physical work.

Obviously there is a form/function relationship that doesn't necessarily dictate that all humanoids strictly resemble mirror images of humans...in fact, task specific robots currently performing niche duties most likely will retain their shapes, but have the added advantage of complex data storage, retrieval, and implementation functionality (think da Vinci surgical robots.)

It is hard to believe humanoid workers will help human workers for long before replacing them though, similar to how many Americans were forced to train their replacements in manufacturing offshoring. With labor costs accounting for the highest cost for most corporations, "hiring' humanoids makes smart corporate economic sense. Plus there is no need for health insurance, vacation, sick leave or the most dreadful of all...discrimination lawsuits which have morphed into a "mansion industry" (for both the attorneys and plaintiffs.)

Now companies can "hire" with assurance that their workers will show up on time, sober, fully qualified, and ready to work without complaint (essentially until they need a recharge or break.)

What industries are most suited to harnessing the power of humanoids? This author would argue that initially positions that require LESS dexterity and more DANGER are ripe for replacement. Along those lines, the global agricultural industry seems ideal for disruption.

Concurrent with the LESS dexterity and more DANGER filters for humanoid replacement of workers, AI should be able to successfully replace workers in positions with limited to no PHYSICAL activity like LAW, MEDICINE, and FINANCE. The one saving grace on these industries is "the human element." 

"The human element," or what Citrini Research describes as "friction with a friendly face," should provide a buffer for some (limited) time against the total replacement of a human worker by either a humanoid or AI Agent, especially if the product or service is humanistic...ie requiring human empathy, lineage, or connection to successfully deliver such services or products.

Without strong human relationships, though, the value proposition of whether an implied result is more important than a relationship will be at the forefront of the buyer, consumer, or patient. And to a lesser extent, the seller, producer or provider. How valuable is that "friction" versus getting the best price, service, or result?

Betting on Human Behavior

 Betting on Human Behavior

My ears perk up whenever I see or hear about changes in human behavior because experience has taught me whenever human behavior changes, and that change is sustained, a lot of dollars are behind it. There are many ways to make money in this world, and one of my favorites is to bet on human behavior.

Almost always, changes in human behavior are subtle at first, then big and obvious. The German philosopher Arthur Schopenhauer described truth, an accurate corollary to human behavior, as passing through three stages: "All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident. To that end, I want to spot behavioral change early and act on it.

Big tech likes to capture large data across multiple clouds to run predictive analytics. Visualizing data in this context is important because it allows companies to find sustaining trends. Although their resources are virtually limitless, big tech still depends upon someone, doing something, to change some human behavior. It may be just a nudge to an existing behavior, or it could be something truly disruptive, but the litmus test is spotting a trend based on evidence of human behavior change.

Trendspotting changes in human behavior early is valuable because changing human behavior at scale is capital intensive. People don't just line up to pay $5 for a cup of coffee; that behavior was nudged to where it is today. A lot of marketing, brand creation, construction, and products coupled with decades of advertising needed to occur to make that human behavior change happen. Many attempts at behavior modification fail. Hence, usually by the time a change in human behavior is noticeable, the seed has taken root and is growing. These are the seeds big tech is looking for and the ones investors should be cognizant of as well. Lao Tzu said it well, "To see things in the seed, that is genius."

Human behavior is often a leading indicator of where the profits will flow, especially if a company succeeds in turning a commodity into a brand. What do consumers ask for? Carmel-colored cola? Athletic sports shoes? Electric-powered cars? A video conference call? No. Consumers ask for the brands. Branding typically results from repeated nudges from marketing or praise from fellow consumers who have tried the brand. From there, if successful, human behavior grows tap roots and the brand becomes sustainable. Investors can reap significant gains in owning companies with high margin/high volume products and services typified by strong brands. There is, however, a sly danger to this success.

Danger arises when the human behavior changed becomes so successful that the brand reverts back to a commodity. Success breeds copycats. A niche without moats, such as superior technology or intense consumer loyalty, is usually exploited by competitors. Rarely have I seen a consumer ask for a branded gasoline or a branded wireless carrier for example, at some point a highly successful product or service reverts back to commodity status unless it innovates by changing human behavior and renewing the innovation cycle.

We're at that very crossroads today. With multiple crises engulfing our society, a whole new wave of companies are being formed as you read this blog and many will be coming to the market soon, if not hitting the tape already. Human ingenuity is a powerful force, the desire to survive is strong, and unleashing animal spirits creates opportunity. One change in human behavior that has caught my attention is in sports.

The reopening of sports leagues across the country has temporarily satiated the hunger for the proverbial "Bread & Circus" that runs deep in our collective psyche. Competitive physical human sports have been with us from the dawn of time. But along with the reopening of sports something else has occurred, or I should say reemerged, and it is a powerful, instinctive, human behavior.

The way many viewers increasingly enjoy sporting events now is directly tied to wagering on them, legally. Sports betting now has the umbrella support of the 2018 PASPA ruling, which changed everything. PASPA legalized sports betting at the federal level, and states like New Jersey jumped on the bandwagon early. Residents in these early-adopter states didn't waste time either; they've unleashed a proverbial tsunami of bets.

Sports betting has arisen as probably one of the most exciting new economic sectors in recent memory. The initial revenue numbers are staggering. Hungry for tax revenue, states are trying to pass legislation as fast as the quill can write. Twenty-two states and the District of Columbia have legalized sports wagering since the 2018 ruling.

As expected with a behavioral change at scale, there are all types of derivative jobs arising from this new (legal) sector. From payment processors to software developers to accountants, the potential spectrum of new jobs created is vast. New sectors typically have long runways and spawn secondary and often tertiary industries. All of this is a result of human behavior change. 

Prior to the PASPA ruling, sports betting was obviously still happening. But legal sports betting was primarily restricted to Nevada, and wagers had to be placed in person at a casino's respective sportsbook. Bettor's were issued a physical ticket. A confluence of events coupled with technology has radically changed the dynamics of betting in the pandemic stricken post-PASPA world; now every living room is a potential sportsbook.