Lives Unlived

 Lives Unlived

Look to your right and look to your left, and all around you too...those are the invisible lives unlived. On this Memorial Day pause to remember the so many lives lost in wars. Young lives unlived, so full of dreams and potential. A hundred Jonas Salks. A thousand Neil Armstrongs. Millions of fathers, mothers, son, daughters. Entire generations never to be lived. That is the true cost of war.

"It's The Oil, Stupid."

 "It's The Oil, Stupid."

James Carville's classic quip to Bill Clinton to help him win the 1992 Presidential Election was "It's the economy, stupid." Somebody needs to whisper to Joe Biden that Republicans are going to clean house in November because, once again, it is all about the economy. And this time, the economy is oil.

Oil prices have a significant effect on the consumer price index, ie inflation, because oil touches everything; from shipping, to manufacturing, to construction, to food, to travel, etc. etc. The list is virtually endless. Yes, even your Netflix! Streaming takes energy. 

$100 crude oil prices are going to significantly increase the inflationary pressures not only in the United States, but globally as well because oil is demonstrated in U.S. Dollars. This will cause a slowdown in the U.S. economy, with the most likely result a recession as demands ebbs, then collapses as both prices INCREASE and the Federal Reserve withdraws liquidity from the economy. It is the perfect storm.

The Democrats could still be heroes if they had a modicum of will to unleash domestic oil production. They won't, but it they did multiple things would happen immediately. First, the 8% of daily US energy needs currently being sourced from Russia would disappear (hence we don't fund Russia on the back end for then wasting our resources refunding Ukraine on the front end.)

Next, for approximately every 10% price drop in oil there would be a resulting 2.7% decrease in the CPI. Finally, wait for it, OK the quick math tells me $50 oil solves the rampant inflation problem. Oh yeah, you also make the USA energy-independent again, without have to rely on "favors" from enemies abroad.

 

Menace to Society

 Menace to Society

At what point did the United States decide to stop following the Geneva Conventions? It seems like right around the time of the Afghanistan debacle the Joe Biden Administration no longer wanted to establish, follow, or track any sort of Rules of Engagement.

Last night a protracted firefight led to an explosion that waxed a reported dozen civilians (yet again)...but this time we allegedly also got an ISIS leader. So much for the "silent operators," I guess those guys are all working on their books, movies, and fitness programs since being discharged for not getting the vax.

But this brings up a larger question: When our own society is off the rails (see Southern Border or Urban Crime Rate or Inflation), why in the world is the United States doing proactive military ops in Syria on terrorists heavily shielded by civilians? This felt like yet another sad display of public relations in projecting a "tough guy" image that any meaningful action. This reckless attitude is having significant spillover effects.

If you think the Rule of Law is eroding faster than a California beach house's front yard you're right. Societal breakdown at scale is occurring before our eyes. The metrics don't lie, and even a lawn sign espousing that you "believe in science" won't help mitigate the effects of brazen violations of the law. Before we go gallivanting around the globe flexing our military muscle, this country needs to get its own House (yes the Capitol version) in order.

When freedoms are trampled and the Rule of Law becomes a joke, then hypocrisy rules. I predict an implosion, and right soon. The country's media is briskly changing the narrative to "living with Covid," lockdowns are now only for the "unhinged," and even mask mandates are being dropped. CNN cleaned house yesterday. And as the capitalist Bob Dylan so rightly remarked "the times, they are a changing."

Financial farmers should take careful note of the sea change occurring in front of them; as Covid fades another hydra will raise its head before the all-important November Election cycle. It could be Ukraine. It could be Urban Crime. It could be inflation. It could be all three and more. Stay on point and seek out quality assets at good prices. Protect your family from the erosion of freedom. Champion the Rule of Law. Be vocal about hypocrisy. This is YOUR country and politicians work for YOU. Make it so.

The Fall of Kabul

 The Fall of Kabul

The Fall of Kabul is emblematic of twenty years of failed leadership from the military industrial complex, which has squandered trillions of dollars in U. S. taxpayer treasure and countless gallons of American blood in a wholly unsatisfying result; the complete capitulation of a democratically elected government to an angry horde of barbarians armed with American weapons, driving American vehicles, and cutting a direct path unopposed to the capital two weeks BEFORE America was projected to withdraw.

Who is culpable? The list is long, yet there is an eerie silence emanating from our most "distinguished" politicians and statesman/women...where is John Kerry? Hillary Clinton? Condoleezza Rice? Colin Powell? Do we even have a Secretary of State today? Four Presidents, including the sitting one, haven't released more than a Tweet. American Taxpayers, Veterans, and our Afghan allies deserve better than this...in the coming days, weeks, and months as heads literally roll in Kabul, we should take the opportunity to fathom the impact of this seminal event in our history.

Afghanistan demonstrates the near impossibility of establishing a democracy half way around the world, when even waging war closer to home is a tenuous task at best. Standing up essentially a new country almost always fails if the wellspring of democracy doesn't flow from within and a coalition of the willing really isn't willing to stay for the long haul...and by the long haul I mean multi-generational transfer of power. It is completely implausible to believe a new democracy can be rooted in a couple decades when the ghosts of previous belligerents still walk the Earth. We still have bases in Germany, Italy, Korea 75+ years after WWII!

Some time in the last administration we decided the mission wasn't actually nation-building, and the goal then shifted to withdrawing. The chaos that ensued is Joe Biden's "Saigon moment," it will live in infamy, as pictures of Afghans clasping to departing aircraft linger in the mind like a helicopter on the U.S. embassy in Saigon. Joe Biden owns this disaster. The weakness and incompetence of this administration is simply staggering. It begs the question, "What else have they completely lost control over?" The southern border immediately comes to mind.

Now we are left with "Operation Afghan Clean-Up"...is this administration up to the task? Probably not. Private billionaires, enriched mightily from the military industrial complex, need to act. Bill Gates needs to redirect "empowerment funding" to leasing a fleet of 747s. Jeff Bezos needs to provide logistical support and housing to all our inbound Afghan allies. George Soros and Warren Buffett need to provide incomes to all these brave allies who put everything on the line to help build billionaire fortunes. The days of Ross Perot funding private operations to free hostages should not be simply a legend.

If Afghanistan has taught us anything, it is that leadership matters. In the face of calamity our leadership completely failed. Bravado and tough rhetoric on the campaign trail somehow beguiled the American voters who elected shrinking violets. They need to be held to account. Freedom truly is not free. It is borne on the backs of those we want it most.