Showing posts with label Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. Show all posts

Monday, June 13, 2022

Tasty Tidbits

 Tasty Tidbits


Edwin Lefevre chronicles the life of legendary stock trader Jesse Livermore in the masterpiece "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator." It is a timeless read for Wall Street aficionados, students of the stock market, and even those with just a cursory interest in finance. If you haven't read it yet, put this book on the top of your summer reading list. Below are some of my favorite tasty tidbits. The wisdom and knowledge gleaned from this book are priceless, but Amazon will sell you a copy for about ten bucks!

1) "It takes a man a long time to learn all the lessons of all his mistakes. They say there are two sides to everything. But there is only one side to the stock market, and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side. It took me longer to get that general principle fixed firmly in my mind than it did most of the more technical phases of the game of stock speculation."

2) "After spending many years on Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I've known many men who where right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine--that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. It is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance."

3) "Another lesson I learned early is that there is nothing new in Wall Street. There can't be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again."

4) "There is nothing like losing all you have in the world for teaching you what not to do. And when you know what not to do in order not to lose money, you begin to learn what to do in order to win. Did you get that? You begin to learn!"

5) "Speculation in stocks will never disappear. It isn't desirable that it should. It cannot be checked by warnings as to its dangers. You cannot prevent people from guessing wrong no matter how able or how experienced they may be. Carefully laid plans will miscarry because the unexpected and even the unexpectable will happen. Disaster may come from a convulsion of nature or from the weather, from your own greed or from some man's vanity; from fear or from uncontrolled hope. But apart from what one might call his natural foes, a speculator in stocks has to contend with certain practices or abuses that are indefensible morally as well as commercially."


Many readers will notice distinct similarities in Livermore's trading philosophy utilizing momentum signals and the Absolute Alpha strategy launched on June 6th.  Absolute Alpha acted on the preponderance of Bearish market signals at launch and has steadily added more cowbell over the ensuing week, including today. Bearish signals remain constant and intact. Livermore would probably LOVE trading in our era.

Investors today have many advantages that Livermore didn't have in his day; nearly real-time quotes and execution with almost universal free trading, nearly limitless data sources, and even the ability to limit risk via index trading rather than speculation in individual stocks or commodities. So although the game may have changed, most (all?) of the behavioral characteristics remain the same; fear & hope drive the investing world. 
 

Sunday, June 12, 2022

Suffering Fools

Suffering Fools


Dearest fellow Financial Farmers, why do we suffer fools? Investors for too long have been held hostage to economic imbeciles. Why are we gluttons for punishment? If every piece of economic data indicates that the market is POOP, why NOT short it? 

Frequent readers of this amazing blog know that this author is a big fan of "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" by Edwin Lefevre detailing the life of Jesse Livermore. It reads like an acquired taste, in that fine champagne is an acquired taste. I consider it Gospel for trading. With that said, one of my favorite lines in the book details Livermore's thoughts on selling: "If a stock is good enough to sell, it is good enough to sell short."

Here at ILAF we have an open mind, but it closes like a steel trap when we lose money! The past 7 months have been a painful reminder of what happens when "leadership" runs amok and there is no strategy in place. Chaos ensues. Why as an investor should you be punished for this? Well because you believe in long-term growth and that the economy will "eventually recover," right? 

Recovery often takes longer than we realize, with the Bear Markets often lasting years. In times of listless trading, near-term assets are whipsawed back and forth until investors are green with nausea, not envy. So with that said, there are several options for investors who have little to no confidence in the current market.

First, there is always "do nothing." This involves keeping your current portfolio as is. You're indifferent to near-term volatility and think in decades. Second, there is Dollar Cost Average your existing portfolio during the sell-off with the hope of increasing your positions. Over long periods of time this has generally worked. Third, there is the safety run idea of going all cash until the market subsides and there is some light at the end of the tunnel. The average bear market lasts about 300 days. So cozy up to a umbrella cocktail for about 10 months. A fourth option to consider would be profiting from the downturn. There are several ways to accomplish this, some act more as buffers while others seek Absolute Alpha.

Consider your time horizon and goals, but also your risk tolerance. As Zero Hedge aptly says, "In the long run we're all dead." So for some doing nothing works, others prefer a cocktail on the beach, and a few investors will try to profit from chaos. Socrates put it best: "Know thyself."


Sunday, February 7, 2021

Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

 Reminiscences of a Stock Operator


Recent stock market volatility with the GameStop (GME) short squeeze illustrates that there is nothing new under the sun, indeed some 100 years ago Edwin Lefevre chronicled the career of a character inspired by Jesse Livermore. If you've never had the pleasure of reading it, I highly recommend "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator." It is one of the seminal books on trading, risk, and human behavior ever set to typeface. 


Tuesday, July 11, 2017

Money Is Made In The Holding


What a bountiful harvest we are enjoying this year fellow farmers! I wanted to take a moment away from the fields and share with you a favorite quote of mine from my favorite book on investing.

Edwin Lefevre's masterwork "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" has stood the test of time well and tells the story of Jesse Livermore, dubbed the "Boy Plunger," who turned his smarts, energy, and grubstake into an extremely successful career on Wall Street (up until his untimely death in the coat closet of the Sherry-Netherland.)

The primary take-away is this: "Money is made in the holding." And by that Livermore explains that the largest fortunes he made in his career were the result of buying and HOLDING the position.

Do some positions flop? Yes, many. Do some seeds fail? Yes, many. But the potential for an outsized return via an exponential winner dwarfed them all. The proverbial bumper crop that keeps a harvest going for years, generations in fact. There are many ne'er-do-wells reaping the success from seed planted generations before them. And why? They have held.

This ties in well with the Invest Like A Farmer philosophy of buying monopolistic dividend paying stocks with a steadily increasing left to right chart. Day-to-day a position may lose money. Over months it may as well, but over an increasing time period the confluence of inflation, consumption, and (hopefully) brand management those holding a position can harvest a bountiful crop.

So the is my mid-summer wisdom passed along from Jesse Livermore: "Money is made in the holding."