Poopmetrics

 Poopmetrics

If the politicians can't be trusted, then what can citizens rely upon to tell them the Covid truth? Why fecal matter of course! Aptly titled "Poopmetrics" this article deals with the increasingly useful, accurate, and utility of measuring fecal matter in wastewater as both a snapshot AND predictive model of the NIH-funded gain-of-function research that lead to the release of Covid-19 from the Wuhan Institute of Virology in 2019.

This raw data gleaned from sewerage is probably one of, if not THE signature scientific advancement, outside the vaccines and therapeutics we have made since the start of the pandemic. It is scientifically sound. It is available at scale. And unless the politicians can corrupt the data flow, it should remain an enduring metric of the current infection pool, its delta (meaning change, in the classical Greek reference), and projected impact across geography in the United States. Obviously it is also scalable from a global perspective. Smoking Gun Alert: Is there a Wuhan dataset available from June 2019-December 2019?

Fecal analysis is about a pure a statistic as inflation and taxation in terms of portability to utility in terms of baseline establishment and predictive value. We can shift resources. Implement different treatments. And hopefully save lives!

From a financial perspective this collapse we see in Omicron in Boston sewerage after a hyper spike is extremely bullish; is this the third and final wave of Covid-19 that will then dissipate into the Spring? That chart sure looks good. Also encouraging is the relatively LOWER negative outcomes as a percentage of infections and hospitalizations. With over 75% of the population vaccinated and with a large percentage of the total population already exposed, recovering, or recovered from having had Covid-19 it seems that we are finally turning the corner on a pandemic which has raged for nearly 3 years.

Takeaways? In life and investing, look for raw, unadulterated visual data. We are a visual species. Politicians lie, but visual data accurately displayed tells its own story without spin. Stack these visual data sources and generate your own conclusion based on facts, reason, and probability. Then make your move.

 

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Where is Bill Gates?

Where is Bill Gates?

Although I enjoy a TED Talk just as much as the next guy, it really makes you wonder if it is the best use of your time if you're the head of a multi-billion dollar charitable health foundation in the midst of a global pandemic. Rather than fielding questions as to what you'd do if you were President of the United States, perhaps it would be better to go through an action plan of what the Gates Foundation is proactively doing to help fight the coronavirus. Where is Bill Gates?

As the beneficiary of hundreds of millions of dollars in both Federal and State tax exemptions, the Gates Foundation holds a special place in global philanthropy. For the liberal elite, it is an invitation-only pass into the highest echelons of philanthropy. But the hairs on the back of your neck should tingle when you hear the words "philanthropy," especially when it coincides with massive tax breaks that would otherwise be funneling much needed funds into a government that is actually fighting the coronavirus with surges in public/private manufacturing of N95 masks and ventilators, an unrelenting pursuit of vaccines amongst big pharma, and most importantly, the frontline heroes (nurses, caregivers, EMTs, firefighter, doctors, etc.) who are completely overwhelmed. Where is Bill Gates?

Philanthropy, and foundations in particular, are touchy subjects. At face value, they are supposed to be the engines of direct, unbureaucratic good. And many, many are just that...they have minuscule operating budgets, shoestring infrastructure, and provide a world of good for many. To those, God bless you! My concerns, however, arise when an institution by its very mandate, say helping to alleviate global pandemics, does nothing when its very reason for relevance appears on the global stage. Then it is only morally right to ask questions. Where is Bill Gates?

A higher power lens needs to focus on the billions of dollars pledged and committed to private foundations when operating expenses run into the hundreds of millions, corporate infrastructure is grandiose, and financial control of donated assets remains intact to the donor(s). As taxpayers on the hook for capital gains and income taxes, we all should wonder why the U.S. Treasury isn't the first choice for billionaire philanthropists...especially when foundation mandates are ignored in the face of calamity. Something is seriously wrong when citizens of this great country are deprived of the economic and social benefits of hundreds of billions in sheltered assets. Where is Bill Gates?

When the last vestiges of the coronavirus are ultimately mopped up throughout the world, including the inevitable secondary and tertiary waves, we're going to need a "Marshall Plan" of restoration. Similar to post-9/11, there will be societal changes. The economy itself will shift, and survive. A reckoning needs to occur right quick, however, answering the question of why those with so much did so little. COVID-19 is going to leave generational scars on this country, especially in terms of income and wealth inequality. The salve, echoed by Truman and Reagan alike, was the philosophy Gen George C. Marshall coined with the comment: "There is no limit to the good you can do when you don't care who gets the credit." It's time to strip mega foundations of their tax-exempt status and restore accountability to the taxpayer. Where is Bill Gates? Who cares.

Climbing a Wall of Worry

Climbing a Wall of Worry

It has often been said that stocks climb a wall of worry. Coronavirus is going to put this maxim to the ultimate test in the weeks, months, and years ahead as investors digest news cycles that seem to circulate in discrete 15-minute increments of despair, hope, jubilation, and despair again.

Coronavirus appears to be the most challenging wall of worry for bullish investors to climb in at least a generation. What to do? Like any good coach will tell you, having a playbook is essential. In terms of relevant coronavirus playbooks, I am a big fan of Laura Spinney's "Pale Rider" which describes the course of the Spanish Flu.

As previously mentioned on this very blog several weeks ago, COVID-19 closely resembles the spread of Spanish Flu from 100 years ago. Although not identical, both diseases share eerily similar traits. More importantly, in my humble opinion, is what we can glean from a societal impact and recovery timeline as useful takeaways.

Given the exponential growth rate of infections throughout the globe, and the denial still present in many countries (Mexico/Sweden) that the "Pale Rider" is coming, I think there is the distinct possibility it could be much worse. Ignorance may be bliss, but denial is not a good strategy. I also believe there are vast societal changes coming our way along the scale of 9/11. You know a crisis is real if it affects behavior. This one will.

Prior to 9/11 airport security was present, but for all intents it was simply a quick screening...i.e. gun/no gun. After the Twin Towers fell, the world as we knew it fundamentally changed in terms of security protocols. I suspect something similar will happen in regards to coronavirus. This brings us to the proverbial "wall of worry" that stocks need to climb in order to regain their highs. What will lead to an economic recovery?

I think a two-pronged solution is in order to beat the coronavirus. First, we need to flatten the curve nationwide immediately. Although roundly criticized, Bill Ackman's interview on CNBC last week (18 March 20) was spot on; much of what he said came to fruition rapidly, several of his ideas still need to be implemented. His thesis: The coronavirus cannot live (long) without a host. If you want to flatten the curve, shut down the USA for a month.

The second prong, which needs to be worked concurrently, is to laser-focus on restoring positive cash flow on a national level; from large companies to small business, cash flow is essential to survival. There are undoubtedly certain industries which are going to take longer than others to recover, especially customer-facing ones which have significant exposure to geographic movement and human sanitation. Via paradigm shifts in behavior and societal norms, however,  many industries can be up and running within weeks. Success in flattening the curve and an economic "jumpstart," however, both rely on a key factor: Trust.

One of the first questions many portfolio managers are asking is: "What will survive?" From there a lot of speculation ensues as to: "Who has the best balance sheet" or "Who stands to gain market share?" But ultimately all that matters is: "What brands do I trust?" That's the lynchpin to the entire economy. Trust. Trust is going to result in sales which will result in cash flow which underpins survival. Trust is essential.

The founder of Salesforce, Marc Benioff famously remarked last year that "trust" has become the coin of the realm, commenting that "Trust has to be the highest value in your company." I echo this philosophy, and also believe that is exactly what will help investors climb the wall of worry ahead. Logistics, supply chains, manufacturing, safety, sanitation, all of them and more, are completely dependent upon trust.