$1T Land Deal

$1T Land Deal

As President Trump departs for Davos, it is becoming increasingly likely that the United States may purchase Greenland from Denmark with a price tag rumored at $1T. This land deal would mark the largest of the land deals ever completed for the United States.

The two largest previous deals being The Louisiana Purchase in 1803 from France for $15,000,000 (yes the same price in nominal dollars as a flashy Beverly Hills home today) and The Alaska Purchase from the Russian Empire in 1867 for $7.2M which was termed "Seward's Folly" under the belief the United States overpaid for a vast frozen tundra.

Greenland offers the United States, and indeed both Europe and Canada, the opportunity for increased defense against potential adversaries capable of launching intercontinental missiles that would fly over the Article Circle on the shortest flight path into the United States. Contrary to popular belief, this is not the first time the United States has attempted to negotiate for the purchase of Greenland. It is just the latest salvo, this time very public, of the United States trying to shore up its northern defense.

Indeed, the United States has tried to purchase Greenland on three successive occasions before; in 1867 by Seward, in 1910, and most recently in 1946 after World War II. All previous attempts had been rebuffed, with the latest after World War II cementing Denmark's control of a landmass FIFTY (50X) times its size, but 1/120th its population. 1946 was a missed opportunity, especially as the United States aptly entered the Cold War.

Interestingly over the past weekend, 8 NATO countries deployed troops to Greenland on the concern of President Trump's desire to buy Greenland. Yet these same countries for some odd reason have not deployed a single trop to Ukraine for an intense land battle with Russia which is entering its 4th year. Millions injured, hundreds of thousands killed, and complete societal change in Ukraine yet seemingly only Poland has stepped up to the plate.

The dynamics of the European mind are mysterious. Denmark acts like a domain squatter who has allowed use of a war prize from the 1300s to the United States to benefit it and Europe, while refusing to let the protector of Europe (USA) to develop this asset for global security.

Time will tell how the chips fall, but Denmark has the opportunity to cash in on an asset they have long done nothing with and provide the United States, Canada, and Europe with additional defensive resources.

Siege of Kiev

 Siege of Kiev

After squandering multiple opportunities to destroy the sitting duck convoy of Russian tanks invading the Ukraine, the United States and its European Allies now face a dire decision. Will they let the Russians encircle major Ukrainian cities like Kiev or provide direct intervention?

In the coming days Russians will have surrounded multiple Ukrainian cities, despite the best attempts of the brave and vastly outnumbered Ukrainian resistance. History tells us Russia is entering a siege mentality; they will attempt to squeeze the Ukrainians out of their homeland by incessant shelling, cutting off water, electricity, and inflows of food. The Russians are going to have a hell of a time, however, eliminating every Ukrainian and taking all of the major cities. There are fundamental differences in moral, motivation, and support that the Ukrainians enjoy.

Consider, the Ukrainian Resistance is fighting for their homeland. Russians are invading under the direction of a unelected tyrant determined to destroy cities in a medieval fashion. The weeks ahead will reflect the dire consequences of utilizing war crimes to get a population to surrender. The desire to survive is far greater than that to conquer, especially when the entire world is united against Russia. An endless supply of weapons is now flowing into Ukraine. 

Sieges only work if those surrounding a city, or castle, or country, can maintain endless shelling, have vast supplies of food, and have some degree of rotation or relief in their forces. And at all times the siege force must be aware of the dangers to their flanks of cutting off their supply, communication, and leadership lines. 

So although the current situation looks dire for the Ukrainian people, the Russia hordes need to be extremely concerned as their armies will soon begin wasting away from constant guerrilla warfare. The Ukrainians have demonstrated a steely resolve the defend their homeland. Hopefully they will receive a Berlin Airlift-type of supply run from the Western world to help them defeat these invaders. America needs to stand strong with true patriots lest we find ourselves in a far, far worse scenario in the coming weeks. Leadership matters.

Inflation Nation

 Inflation Nation

Nothing makes America poorer faster than inflation. Last Friday's annualized Consumer Price Index (CPI) number came it at a sizzling annualized 6.8%, the highest since Reagan had to go to work defeating the last remnants of the Carter's administration's handiwork. Reagan broke the back of inflation by jacking up interest rates to the point where inflation was tamed. The greatest Bull Market the world has ever witnessed soon followed. We might not have that luxury of both a prudent leader and the liquidity to tame inflation this time around.

Simply put, inflation is the by-product of a fiat fiscal and monetary policy run amok, too much paper money (fiat money) is created rather than actual value. Gold has well stood the test of time for literally thousands of years because it cannot be created by man. It must be acquired by toil. Not the case with Benjamins. The Treasury Department can keep on a-printing those bad boys all day long. In fact, with the modern marvels of blockchain and digitization 1s and 0s can now account for the actual "money." No need to even print it...just add a couple comas to the supply and viola, you have more money!

The Biden Administration is in a serious bind. There is tremendous demand for a limited set of real products; read housing, energy, food, education, healthcare, and hard goods. Consumers are not stupid. They are moving their digital paper money as quickly as possible into goods and services, hence simply via a classic supply & demand scenario prices go up with increased demand and diminishing supply.

Although the headline number of 6.8% annualized is bad, the reality is far, far worse dear farmers. The fact is the majority of Americans do NOT live in Megacities. As evidenced by the population density map of the USA below, the country is pretty well distributed with the East (loosely East of the Mississippi River) being at least 2X more dense than the West (up until you get to coastal California of course.) Why does this matter?

This matters financial farmers because both the CPI data set is a fallacy. The majority of Americans are seeing double digit inflation in everything that matters, and most importantly they're actually paying for it out of pocket. Let me explain. A significant portion of the residents of Megacities are subsidized in terms of housing, food, and healthcare. Meaning the government is picking up the tab. Whereas outside these areas, the median (not average) citizen is paying through the nose for higher gas prices, housing, food, healthcare, education, etc., etc.

The end result is a total theft of wealth from the very people who the Government SHOULD be focused on improving their opportunity in life with lower taxation, less regulation, and more opportunity for goods and services sold in the USA. The opposite is happening. The government is subsidizing cheap labor and goods overseas which then compete at a significant advantage against home-grown goods and services. The net result is the loss of market share, employment participation, and meaningful opportunity for the very citizens the government was elected to serve.

What is a hard-working financial farmer and patriot to do? First, keep calm and carry on. Second, look to circle the wagon(s) around physical goods and vital services. There is nothing "transitory" about the hordes of people competing for the same goods and services...lock up your share of real estate, blue chips (larger-cap monopolies paying a dividend, see "Rapko's Rules"), gold, education, and healthcare. Oddly enough having some cash might not be a bad idea, because even though its buying power decreases by the day (hour?) there is something to be said of "buying the dip" in terms of assets.

When will the ship turn around? It might not turn around. We have a timid Fed unwilling to buck the interests of the Biden Administration. An impartial Fed does not exist, if it ever did. So what this means is interest rate hikes will be milquetoast at best, especially if the "BBB Plan" is enacted by some unfortunate miracle. Part of the BBB Plan relies heavily on low rates, forever. As an investor this means 2022 doesn't look particularly bright in terms of upside as investors will be fighting for survival against the Fed.

2022 is all about finding assets which offer REAL growth in terms of capturing market share, increasing dividends, and raising their prices for goods and services. A great question to ask is "can this business pass along costs?" For companies without positive cash flow and living on the largess of zero interest rates it becomes a eloquent kabuki dance of finding investors willing to stomach volatility spikes. Only those that create and sell real value will survive.

Long March to Socialism

 Long March to Socialism

The Founders were brilliant. They knew if government is inherently corrupt, it must be kept small. Prior to the 20th Century, except for the Civil War period, running the government never exceeded 3% of GDP. Think about that. Today we're at 44%. The long march toward socialism is almost complete.

Why is socialism bad? The premise of socialism is the belief that all rights and property belong to the government, who doles them out to you. That is in stark contrast to the concepts of freewill, liberty, and the Constitution of the United States. America was built on the belief that our inalienable rights are from God; socialism believes that there is no higher power than the State.

For almost 150 years this country was able to survive on excise taxes, or tariffs, on foreign goods coming into this country. America's resources are so vast as to make this country completely and utterly self-sufficient. The American market is such that foreign products fight to gain market share in the United States. Somehow over the last century, mainly due to wars, we have abandoned this approach and instead decided to tax citizens directly, thus slowly eroding their liberty.

Where there is increasing taxation, there is decreasing liberty. Money concentrates power, and there is no greater concentration of power than Washington, D.C. Complexity is also a barrier to liberty, as it requires time and capital to comply with ever-increasing demands from the enforcement arm of the government, the IRS.

Only two Presidents in recent memory fully grasped the fundamental basis of supply side economics, best illustrated by the eponymous Laffer Curve; that a wealth transfer (taxation) ultimately lowers total income because it provides a disincentive to work both at the top (those being taxed) and the bottom (those receiving the transfer.)  Hence, Presidents Kennedy and Reagan implemented taxation according to the principles of the Laffer Curve; both saw economic booms (1961-1968, 1982-1990.)

Sadly, Joe Biden doesn't understand the economic policy of JFK. Kennedy understood, most likely from his father's influence who was a very successful businessman, that a rising tide lifts all boats; both high income earners and low income earners benefit when they keep more of their own money and decide how best to allocate it.

Laundering money through the government for social programs doesn't work because the government is too corrupt; there are too many lobbyists, politicians, and special interest groups wanting their "taste" before policy is created to actually implement a program. Once established, a government agency is as Reagan well put "as close to immortal" as anything on Earth. Government creep continues into every facet of life. Liberty decreases. Personal responsibility is eliminated. Kinda the opposite of the American experience. We can go to Europe for that anytime.

The criticism to low taxation (read high freedom) is that almost inevitably there will be outsize winners. Some individuals or companies or both acting as the same will monopolize industries. This is a natural result of capitalism. It actually shows that capitalism is working. The downside of monopolies obviously is that upon reaching monopoly status they provide stagnant utility to the economy because there is no competition which leads to a collapse in innovation, productivity, and ultimately economic stagflation. This is why the Sherman Anti-Trust Act must be enforced.

Part of the rise in socialism in the United States is directly tied to the rise of monopolies; they constrict liberty by steamrolling competition at the behest of the government. It is long past due that many of the largest tech companies receive immediate scrutiny and enforcement. Or if that is unpalatable to our elected "representatives," then smaller companies are provided with significantly lower rates of taxation, incorporation benefits, and work stimulus. Regulation favors the powerful. Naturally, less red tape helps smaller entities survive and thrive.

As financial farmers loving liberty and freewill, what are we to do? Trump had it right by reforming the tax code and saddling foreign competition with tariffs. Picking winners and losers isn't always popular, but picking America First should be popular...and it is a lot more palatable as the Founders well knew to charge foreigners for the privilege of doing business in the United States rather than extracting taxes from American citizens.

I fear in the current political climate the only option for Americans is to vote with their feet; move to tax-friendly (read freedom-friendly) states that respect industrious work. It may be possible to remain in states with onerous taxation, but as the race towards complete socialism continues states themselves will have to choose on what side of this conflict they stand; for the citizens and freedom, or pure socialism. The winds and tides of civil discourse seems to be pitting state against state once again, and once again it is about the unalienable rights of God-given freedom, liberty, and property.