Thursday, June 18, 2015

Blow Up the Tax Code and Start Over



Occasionally there is such a powerful economic article that is needs to be read verbatim; Rand Paul's "Blow Up the Tax Code and Start Over" is one of these. As a free-market champion and supporter of meritocracy, this blog wholly supports the idea of a flat tax and the diminished power of a revenue "service" run amok.

Some of my fellow Republican candidates for the presidency have proposed plans to fix the tax system. These proposals are a step in the right direction, but the tax code has grown so corrupt, complicated, intrusive and antigrowth that I’ve concluded the system isn’t fixable.
So on Thursday I am announcing an over $2 trillion tax cut that would repeal the entire IRS tax code—more than 70,000 pages—and replace it with a low, broad-based tax of 14.5% on individuals and businesses. I would eliminate nearly every special-interest loophole. The plan also eliminates the payroll tax on workers and several federal taxes outright, including gift and estate taxes, telephone taxes, and all duties and tariffs. I call this “The Fair and Flat Tax.”
President Obama talks about “middle-class economics,” but his redistribution policies have led to rising income inequality and negative income gains for families. Here’s what I propose for the middle class: The Fair and Flat Tax eliminates payroll taxes, which are seized by the IRS from a worker’s paychecks before a family ever sees the money. This will boost the incentive for employers to hire more workers, and raise after-tax income by at least 15% over 10 years.
Here’s why we have to start over with the tax code. From 2001 until 2010, there were at least 4,430 changes to tax laws—an average of one “fix” a day—always promising more fairness, more simplicity or more growth stimulants. And every year the Internal Revenue Code grows absurdly more incomprehensible, as if it were designed as a jobs program for accountants, IRS agents and tax attorneys.
Polls show that “fairness” is a top goal for Americans in our tax system. I envision a traditionally All-American solution: Everyone plays by the same rules. This means no one of privilege, wealth or with an arsenal of lobbyists can game the system to pay a lower rate than working Americans.
Most important, a smart tax system must turbocharge the economy and pull America out of the slow-growth rut of the past decade. We are already at least $2 trillion behind where we should be with a normal recovery; the growth gap widens every month. Even Mr. Obama’s economic advisers tell him that the U.S. corporate tax code, which has the highest rates in the world (35%), is an economic drag. When an iconic American company like Burger King wants to renounce its citizenship for Canada because that country’s tax rates are so much lower, there’s a fundamental problem.
Another increasingly obvious danger of our current tax code is the empowerment of a rogue agency, the IRS, to examine the most private financial and lifestyle information of every American citizen. We now know that the IRS, through political hacks like former IRS official Lois Lerner, routinely abused its auditing power to build an enemies list and harass anyone who might be adversarial to President Obama’s policies. A convoluted tax code enables these corrupt tactics.
My tax plan would blow up the tax code and start over. In consultation with some of the top tax experts in the country, including the Heritage Foundation’s Stephen Moore,former presidential candidate Steve Forbes and Reagan economist Arthur Laffer, I devised a 21st-century tax code that would establish a 14.5% flat-rate tax applied equally to all personal income, including wages, salaries, dividends, capital gains, rents and interest. All deductions except for a mortgage and charities would be eliminated. The first $50,000 of income for a family of four would not be taxed. For low-income working families, the plan would retain the earned-income tax credit.
I would also apply this uniform 14.5% business-activity tax on all companies—down from as high as nearly 40% for small businesses and 35% for corporations. This tax would be levied on revenues minus allowable expenses, such as the purchase of parts, computers and office equipment. All capital purchases would be immediately expensed, ending complicated depreciation schedules.
The immediate question everyone asks is: Won’t this 14.5% tax plan blow a massive hole in the budget deficit? As a senator, I have proposed balanced budgets and I pledge to balance the budget as president.
Here’s why this plan would balance the budget: We asked the experts at the nonpartisan Tax Foundation to estimate what this plan would mean for jobs, and whether we are raising enough money to fund the government. The analysis is positive news: The plan is an economic steroid injection. Because the Fair and Flat Tax rewards work, saving, investment and small business creation, the Tax Foundation estimates that in 10 years it will increase gross domestic product by about 10%, and create at least 1.4 million new jobs.
And because the best way to balance the budget and pay down government debt is to put Americans back to work, my plan would actually reduce the national debt by trillions of dollars over time when combined with my package of spending cuts.
The left will argue that the plan is a tax cut for the wealthy. But most of the loopholes in the tax code were designed by the rich and politically connected. Though the rich will pay a lower rate along with everyone else, they won’t have special provisions to avoid paying lower than 14.5%.
The challenge to this plan will be to overcome special-interest groups in Washington who will muster all of their political muscle to save corporate welfare. That’s what happened to my friend Steve Forbes when he ran for president in 1996 on the idea of the flat tax. Though the flat tax was surprisingly popular with voters for its simplicity and its capacity to boost the economy, crony capitalists and lobbyists exploded his noble crusade.
Today, the American people see the rot in the system that is degrading our economy day after day and want it to end. That is exactly what the Fair and Flat Tax will do through a plan that’s the boldest restoration of fairness to American taxpayers in over a century.

Wednesday, April 1, 2015

Happy Birthday Apple

     39 short years ago Apple Computer incorporated in the Great State of California; Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, and Ronald Wayne were the first three employees, now there are nearly 100,000 (not to mention the literally hundreds of secondary and tertiary businesses that Apple sustains.)

     No company has had a greater impact on the world than Apple. Indeed, it has become the largest company in the world with 2014 income at nearly $200B and a market cap approaching $1T,  but even more importantly, Apple has meaningfully changed the world for the better via a number of their products and services. Many of these technologies may not have been invented by Apple, but Apple "perfected" for mass consumption the laptop, streaming music, and smart phone all the while making their products an aspirational brand to own.

     With the forthcoming introduction of the Apple Watch in several weeks, Apple has progressed from manufacturing in a family garage do-it-yourself computer kits (assembly required) to a wearable computer that will be on millions of wrists throughout the world wirelessly connecting to the best ecosystem for content, payment, and functionality. Simply amazing. The tenacity, focus on quality, and ability to consistently deliver innovative products and services is the story of both Apple and America. Happy Birthday Apple, and I wish you many more successful years to come!

Apple Garage HQ


Apple 1


Apple Macintosh

Apple Mac Performa



Apple Portable Mac

Apple Newton

Apple Mac Book Pro

Apple Shuffle, Nano, iPhone

Apple Watch

New Apple HQ








Saturday, February 21, 2015

Planes, Tranes, and Automobiles


2015 has seen the return of durable goods…really durable goods like planes, trains, and automobiles as respective leaders in the Dow's performance. A coincidence? I think not. After the perilous days of 2007, 2008, and 2009 when demand for durables basically collapsed, we saw the fall of the American manufacturing sector.  On the heels of the financial meltdown, a number of iconic GLOBAL manufacturers went bankrupt leaving investors and workers alike out in the cold.

Why the turnaround today? 5 years in the making the shift into overdrive is the result of a cash tsunami from sovereign entities that propped up the massive durable good sectors; manufacturing is time, labor, and capital intensive. These manufacturers became leaner and competitively meaner.

With the Fed reluctant to raise rates anytime soon due to an almost complete lack of gauged inflation, tepid GDP, and basically zero real wage gain I suspect "the fix is in" for planes, trains, and automobiles. Their labor rates, although variable, are typically negotiated for years at a time. Commodity costs have collapsed. Easy money from the Fed, tightening in the labor market, and a recovery in the real estate market all point to continued gains in durables.

Monday, February 2, 2015

2015…the Year of P/E Compression?


What if revenues continue to rise AND profits similarly increase in 2015 yet stock prices remain stagnant (which, based on the January 2015 close is looking like a likely scenario), well then I believe we will have a classic case of Price-to-Earnings compression. Similar to a spring which is compressed by force, the dynamics of the stock market work in a similar, if not identical process, to the linear compression of a spring.

Over time increased revenues which translate to higher and higher earnings have typically reflected their respective advances in increasing stock prices.

When this trend deviates it is typically an abnormal movement in the traditional relationship which generally results in equilibrium (price appreciation) being restored at some point.

The question always, is when? When does the spring bounce back? If indeed GDP is slowing (possible, but with oil's fall it should remain strong), then we can expect the typical bounce back to occur when that point of "tensile" strength (i.e. greed) overwhelms the compression of earnings.

Historically this has been a rapid fulfillment of missed bounce. With nearly all the economic factors lining up in favor of increased GDP, low interest rates, low gas prices, lower manufacturing costs, increasing home values, and decreased unemployment we are in the midst of a great revenue cycle. 

In the short term stock prices may remain "unsprung," but over time the reflection of increased corporate profit should translate to a significantly higher market.

Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Advice from "The Departed"



There's a great scene in "The Departed" when Frank is trying to determine the rat in his organization; he asks himself "Who can do what I can do?" And that fellow financial farmers, is a great litmus test that should be incorporated into your own decision-making process when determining security selection. I think it is a valuable tool to ponder "What company can do what XXX can do?" And if you find yourself without an answer, that's a GOOD sign. It implies that XXX is indeed in possession of some type of monopolistic ability, base, location, or combination therein.

A good read on this subject is "Zero to One" which similarly identifies all monopolies as being all different in their excellence. Check it out!

Thursday, January 1, 2015

Happy New Year!



With solid gains again racked up in 2014, we now look to the upcoming investing year fellow financial farmers!

According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, years ending in "5" have been the MOST bullish (high returns) of any other year. Sound crazy? Well there's probably a pretty good reason for this anomaly, mainly it seems tied to political terms, and specifically, to the 3rd year of a Presidential term.

Consider the statistics that from 1885 to the present, essentially since reliable records of the index returns have been kept, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has had a mean return of 28.3% in years ending in "5"!

Let's also put things in perspective as well, though; consider that we still have record low interest rates with little to no chance of significant raises predicted anytime soon, a recovering real estate market that is still gathering steam, a job market that has pretty much reached its near-term full employment potential, sustained growth in domestic profits, and finally, and by no means the least, a protracted downturn in oil prices.

The combination of these factors bode well for a continued bull run in the stock market. 28.3% sure sounds nice to me. :-)

Although past performance is no guarantee of future performance, those who choose to Invest Like A Farmer can pull some interesting data points and reference material from years past to assist them in planting a solid 2015 portfolio.

Monday, December 22, 2014

Oil's Fall


From June 19th's high of $115.06 per barrel, we've seen oil fall over 50% to $55.26; this is probably the most important financial news of 2014.

Assuming we don't see a "V" recovery in the price of oil, and I think it is highly unlikely we will because supply to the market is significantly stronger than demand, this should bode EXTREMELY well for consumers, manufacturers, and transportation. A glut is nice is you're a price taker.

No doubt there has been carnage; just take a gander at any number of the North Dakota small to mid-cap plays and those charts are simply horrifying, especially for investors who had been purchasing on the entire way up. The global players though, have suffered glancing blows. Down single to low-teens, the majors stand to benefit if they can leverage M&A deals out of this bust to gobble up domestic fields.

Previous posts on this blog identified the fall in oil as a massive tax cut; that is without question true for the vast majority of Americans who regularly drive anywhere or own small businesses with light manufacturing or are dependent on transportation. From a macro view, the "trickle up" effects should be significant to large manufacturers' direct bottom lines (unlikely consumers will realize a price cut in the aisle, that's for sure!)

Ultimately, the crude bust should have meaningful effects on GDP, consumer sentiment, and socioeconomic advantages inclusive of a better hiring environment. What politics has often failed to do, a crude bust just did.

As a financial farmer there are a multitude of looming advantages; the labor rate, harvest and planting expenses, and seed cost will be all lower. Net positives all around to those who wish to Invest Like A Farmer. This should position 2015 & 2016 into meaningful extensions of the existing bull market. My long-standing call of Dow 20,000 by the end of 2016 may now be too low.

Sunday, December 21, 2014

Great Returns Breed Complacency


If there has been one truism consistent in the investing realm it is that great returns breed complacency. Many of you who have chosen to Invest Like A Farmer have realized significant gains over the past several years by investing in large, monopolistic companies with healthy dividends. Now what?

Yearly, or better yet on a quarterly basis, financial farmers should survey the farm and conduct a thorough review of holdings, seed capital, and expected harvest returns. Action isn't necessarily warranted, but rather a game plan, no matter how perfect on paper, should be routinely reviewed in the field to see if execution is proceeding as planned. Course corrections may or may not be warranted.

Those who survived any of the numerous "setbacks" in the markets over the past decade (or longer) well remember the pain of a correction and the ensuing panic which destroys accumulated wealth in the stock market. Seed capital is best to have on hand sitting in the silo well in advance of a downturn, though it may draw little interest in the interim.

Multiple prosperous years don't necessarily warrant a change in strategy, but rather a top-level review of holdings, seed capital (cash) available, and coming cash flow needs. As readers of this blog well know, I champion having a healthy silo of seed capital at the ready. It has tremendous value in terms of peace of mind and potential to invest when the economic winds change.

Selling into weakness is not a pleasant experience, one that many old farmers can recall with a tinge of heartfelt pain. Make hay while the sun shines, but silo some of those gains too.